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Yup, it's that point again. Last night the Boston Red Sox took good thing about a couple of miscues by the Detroit Tigers and took the yank League Championship series and are headed to the arena Series. Go Boston. Unless after all you're a St. Louis Cardinals fan, then you definitely need to see the Sox get washed. Go Cards.
The real question is where to place the bucks this year. If you back Boston or St. Louis? Both teams won 97 games this year. Both teams scored essentially the most runs in the course of the regular season of their own league. Boston scored 70 more runs throughout the season than St. Louis. St. Louis gave up 60 fewer runs than Boston. This can be a series of 2 very competent and really talented teams. The AP just said the Red Sox can be slight favorites. Not really.
In fact, now that the dust has settled a bit of the Red Sox are -1.50 (it's important to bet $15 to win $10) and the Cardinals are +1.35 (you bet $10 to win $13.50). That makes the Cards a small dog bet, but probably a larger overlay. For those of you who know your casino terms, an overlay is whilst you get to make a wager with better odds than the maths or probability predict the percentages should be.
Are the Red Sox really 1.5x better than the Cards? In fact not, however the odds-makers must set the road at a host that splits the whole wagers fairly evenly. What the +1.35 number at the Cards tells us is that there are lots of more Sox fans than Cards fans and much more money could be bet at the Sox if the percentages truly reflected the likely outcome of the series.
For what it's worth, the Red Sox started the season 28-1 to win the arena series, the Cards were 20-1. Make up your individual mind who to bet at the 2013 World Series, but do not be surprised if the autumn Classic goes 7 very exciting games. Personally, I LIKE dogs, especially once I think they're an overlay.
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